On Choosing a Family of Probability Distributions for Lead Time Demand.

Abstract

The problem of selecting an appropriate family of probability distributions to be used in the procedures for forecasting future demands is examined. Using the principle of maximum entropy and other practical considerations, the gamma family is shown to result from conditions typical of those in the Naval Supply System. On considering other decision criteria based on measures of supply effectiveness, the gamma family is shown to be superior to the family of distribution presently in use.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 1974
Accession Number
ADA007668

Entities

People

  • F. Russell Richards
  • Marlin U. Thomas

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Delphi Method
  • Lead Time
  • Mathematics
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Scheduling (Production)
  • Time

Readers

  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design