Automated Long Range (Analog) Forecast Model
Abstract
Naval forces have two principle requirements for long-range weather forecasts: (1) To protect ships in transit, and (2) to aid in operational planning. Since the state-of-the-art precludes adequate dynamic model forecasts beyond a few days, a synoptic climatology approach has been developed for longer ranges. Additional products include sea condition probabilities, a list of best analog dates, and Terminal Probability Forecasts for selected Naval Installations. Four years of statistical verification have consistently demonstrated skill over persistence beyond two days, with skill over climatology out to six to seven days prior to 1973 and out to eight days or more since then.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1974
- Accession Number
- ADA007846
Entities
People
- Carl D. Thormeyer
- Donald Jr R. Mcconathy