A Stochastic Model of Regime Change in Latin America

Abstract

The paper presents a mathematical model of regime change in Latin America; the model is a finite Markov chain with stationary transition probabilities. A first-order Markov chain was found to fit the data satisfactorily, although there were indications that systematic biases existed. More sophisticated models which relax some of the assumptions of finite Markov chains may result in a better fit between model and data.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 20, 1975
Accession Number
ADA007912

Entities

People

  • Michael L. Squires

Organizations

  • Center for Naval Analyses

Tags

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.