Temporal Setting and Judgment under Uncertainty

Abstract

The study asks whether likelihood judgments for past events differ from those for otherwise similar future events, with all these sources of confounding undone. Subjects in past and future groups were presented with identical descriptions of events and asked to judge the likelihood of possible subsequent developments, or 'outcomes.' For past subjects, the evaluated outcomes were set in the past; for future subjects, they were set in the future. These events were constructed so that temporal setting-related changes in meaning were minimal.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 07, 1975
Accession Number
ADA008591

Entities

People

  • Baruch Fischhoff

Organizations

  • Oregon Research Institute

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Contracts
  • Dispersions
  • Geneva Conventions
  • Governments
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Instructions
  • Judgment
  • Military Research
  • New York
  • Probability
  • Production
  • Psychology
  • Statistics
  • Students
  • Theses

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Systems Analysis and Design