Discrete Time Series Forecast of Accident/Injury Frequency Rates in the Army Materiel Command.

Abstract

The research report attacks the problem of providing the safety engineer with a forecasting model that could be used as an effectiveness measure for newly instituted safety programs. Two mathematical forecasting techniques (conventional exponentially smoothed and adaptive exponentially smoothed forecasting) are used to obtain a predicted accident/injury frequency rate. The accuracies of these two techniques are compared and it is found that the conventionally smoothed forecasts provide the most accurate predicting model, but are not considered accurate enough to be used as a measure for program effectiveness.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA009317

Entities

People

  • Norbert Ronald Kniepp

Organizations

  • United States Army Materiel Command

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accidents
  • Accuracy
  • Delphi Method
  • Engineers
  • Frequency

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design