Stochastic Simulations of Long-Range Forecasting Models for Less Developed Regions

Abstract

The report describes progress made to date on the development of methodologies for long-range forecasting of five central environmental descriptors--national power base, international trade, international alignment, internal instability, international conflict--for the less developed regions of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. The report describes (1) the regions used in the analysis and their membership; (2) the strategic importance of the regions; (3) the differences between the regions and the developed nations (Europe) that required (a) reoperationalization of the central environmental descriptors and their predictors and (b) the structuring of the forecasting model; and (4) estimation techniques to be used to generate forecasting parameters to be used in stochastic simulations.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA012804

Entities

People

  • Farid Abolfathi
  • Gary A. Keynon
  • Herman M. Weil
  • John J. Mcilroy
  • Margaret D. Hayes

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Business Administration
  • Commerce
  • Department Of Defense
  • Economic Development
  • Economic Systems
  • Families (Human)
  • Geographic Regions
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • International Conflicts
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • International Trade
  • National Security
  • Political Systems
  • Sociopolitics
  • South America

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • International Relations, focusing on Korea-Africa and North Korea-South Korea relations, and Nigeria-Latin American Relations.