Adaptive Forecasting of the Size of a Force Subject to Random Withdrawals,

Abstract

Adaptive forecasting procedures are developed for a problem of predicting the size of a force which is subject to random withdrawals. The structure of the problem is phrased in terms of the Marine Corps. The author distinguishes between four phases in the service of incoming cohorts. Methods of forecasting have been developed for each phase separately. The present study concentrates on Phase 2 forecasting. The author compares three forecasting procedures: conditional maximum likelihood estimation of prediction intervals; tolerance intervals, and Bayes prediction intervals. The theory of these forecasting procedures is developed and numerical examples illustrate it.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 09, 1975
Accession Number
ADA013175

Entities

People

  • S. Zacks

Organizations

  • George Washington University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Delphi Method
  • Intervals
  • Marine Corps
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Naval Personnel Management
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design