A Disequilibrium Adjustment Inflation Forecasting Model.

Abstract

This paper describes the development and testing of a forecasting model for future rates of inflation (measured by the Gross National Product price deflator). Limitations of conventional multiple-equation econometric model approaches (both economic and mathematical) are discussed. Correlation function analysis and stationarity considerations are employed to screen potential economic input variables before the application of regression analysis. Simulation results of a one and two-year horizon forecaster are examined, and a unique disequilibrium adjustment treatment for periods of price freeze is proposed. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA014302

Entities

People

  • John S. Brush

Organizations

  • United States Air Force Academy

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DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computing-Related Activities
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Equations
  • Information Science
  • Interdisciplinary Science
  • Least Squares Method
  • Mathematical Analysis
  • Mathematics
  • Regression Analysis
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics

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  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Economics