On The Foundations of Mean-Variance Analysis.

Abstract

It is well-known that choices among risky options that are based on means and variances of the probability distributions associated with the options encounter serious logical difficulties unless suitable restrictions are imposed on the relevant distributions. Despite this, clear statements of the logical implications of basic presuppositions of mean-variance analysis have not appeared in the literature. This report offers such statements for the context in which outcomes are not bounded, and the context in which all outcomes lie within a fixed finite interval. 'Reasonable' assumptions in the unbounded case imply a lexicographic choice model with means as the dominant factor and variances as the secondary factor. However, tradeoffs between mean and variance are possible in the bounded outcomes context although the slopes of the resultant tradeoff curves are restricted in a precisely described way.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA015315

Entities

People

  • Peter C. Fishburn

Organizations

  • Pennsylvania State University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Data Science
  • Information Science
  • Intervals
  • Literature
  • Mathematics
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Theoretical Analysis.