A Model to Predict Final Cost Growth in a Weapon System Development Program
Abstract
The increasing cost growth within the DoD military weapon system acquisition process has been the object of attention for many years. With limited resources and shrinking budgets a viable technique to monitor and control cost growth is needed. The reason for cost growth may be related to the elements of uncertainty within a development program. A conceptual model, previously developed to cope with uncertainties in a weapon system acquisition program, was used to determine its applicability for use in the present study. The model relates the concepts of entropy, information, uncertainty and costs in an effort to predict final costs based on a measure of uncertainty. The measure of uncertainty is entropy, or a lack of order in the information available to the program manager. The model attempts to express final development cost as a ratio of initial cost estimates to program entropy.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1975
- Accession Number
- ADA016040
Entities
People
- Anthony S. Babiarz
- Peter W. Giedras
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology