Assurance Limits for Vulnerable Area

Abstract

Most vulnerable area (A sub v) analyses consider component probability of kill given a hit, P(K/H), to be a point estimate with no variance. This report presents statistical methods for calculating assurance limits for (A sub v) assuming P(K/H)'s are not known with certainty . Normal approximation and Monte Carlo techniques are presented. The accuracy of these techniques is determined analytically for a target with a small number of critical components and extended to a larger number of components by heuristic arguments. The central limit theorem indicated that (A sub v) will be approximately normally distributed. Formulas for necessary calculations are shown.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA016796

Entities

People

  • David Montgomery
  • Jerry Kemp
  • Norman Papke

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Aircrafts
  • Computer Programming
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Distribution Functions
  • Information Science
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Normal Distribution
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Random Variables
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Targets
  • Vulnerability
  • Weapons

Fields of Study

  • Physics

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science / Meteorology, specifically Wind Wave Turbulence.
  • Marksmanship and Weaponry.