Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions on Continuous Variables

Abstract

Five procedures for assessing subjective probability distributions over continuous variables were compared using almanac questions as stimuli. The procedures varied on the uncertainty measures used (probabilities, odds, and odds on a logarithmic scale) and the type of response required from the subjects (uncertainty measure or value of the unknown quantity). The results showed the often used fractile procedures were inferior to procedures requiring probabilities or odds as the response from subjects. The results are also discussed in terms of the 'anchoring and adjustment' hypothesis.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA016828

Entities

People

  • David A. Seaver
  • Detlof V. Winterfeldt
  • Ward Edwards

Organizations

  • University of Southern California

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • California
  • Data Analysis
  • Engineering
  • Governments
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Military Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Random Variables
  • Social Sciences
  • Statistical Inference
  • Statistics
  • Systems Engineering
  • Uncertainty
  • Universities

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.