An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).

Abstract

The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model) is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service (LOS) vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA017565

Entities

People

  • Allan Ray Walker

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Battles
  • Computer Programs
  • Digital Information
  • Force Structure
  • Military Personnel
  • Naval Personnel
  • Procedures (Computers)

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Naval Personnel Management