Stochastic Simulations of Long-Range Forecasting Models. Volume 1. Executive Summary
Abstract
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their operational referents, the specification of forecasting equations, and the construction of the three region-specific forecasting models. Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in the Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program and data, the results of a standard forecast, and a sample simulation.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 31, 1975
- Accession Number
- ADA019012
Entities
People
- Herman M. Weil
- John J. Mcilroy