Stochastic Simulations of Long-Range Forecasting Models Volume 2. Research Findings
Abstract
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be used to generate alternative futures and to manipulate policy-sensitive variables. Changes in these variables can be considered representative of policy shifts by the United States and the Soviet Union. The current innovations are designed to handle the highly volatile situations found in the developing world and to produce usable forecasts on the basis of the imperfect data available for these regions. The models include stochastic (probabilistic) elements to project events like irregular governmental transfers (coups) which are probabilistic by nature. The most important new element in the regional models is the simulation capability which will permit hypothetical policy choices by the United States and the Soviet Union to be evaluated in an experimental setting by giving the analyst the capability to examine the impact of alternative U.S. and Soviet behavior toward the Third World regions. Hence, the project provides JCS/J-5 with a specific forecasting capability tailored to the development of long-range estimates of strategic plans and requirements.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 31, 1975
- Accession Number
- ADA019013
Entities
People
- Herman M. Weil
- John J. Mcilroy