An Experimental Study of Four Procedures for Aggregating Subjective Probability Assessments

Abstract

A number of studies have shown that a consensus probability distribution, obtained by averaging together the assessments of individuals, typically outperforms almost all individuals. The present study evaluated several strategies provided for improving upon this averaging approach.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA020455

Entities

People

  • Gregory W. Fischer

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Delphi Method
  • Distribution Functions
  • Feedback
  • Information Processing
  • Information Systems
  • Organizational Structure
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychological Phenomena And Processes
  • Psychology
  • Schools
  • Students
  • Universities
  • Virginia
  • Weather Forecasting

Readers

  • Applied Combinatorial Optimization and Logic Circuit Design.
  • Regression Analysis.