A Monte Carlo Risk Analysis of Life Cycle Cost Prediction.

Abstract

This study is an investigation of the uncertainties involved in the prediction and measurement of Life Cycle Costs. The particular treatment here analyzes Logistic Support Costs, which are a subset of the Life Cycle Costs. The Logistics Supportability Incentives which are embodied in the current General Dynamics F-16 contract are analyzed in the light of the stochastic uncertainties of prediction and measurement of Logistic Support Cost. A Monte Carlo Simulation model is developed which will approximate the uncertainties involved in obtaining a sample measurement of Logistic Support Cost in a fixed length test. The model output is applied to the problems of determining appropriate contractor rewards or penalties, investigating the feasibility of contractor strategies, and investigating the effect of various test lengths.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA021677

Entities

People

  • Samuel B. Graves

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Business Administration
  • Computational Science
  • Contracts
  • Data Science
  • Information Science
  • Knowledge Management
  • Logistics
  • Maintenance
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Inference
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis