Collecting and Analyzing Expert Group Judgment Data,

Abstract

This paper presents methods for collecting and analyzing judgement from groups of experts. It addresses issues associated with resolving the procedural and administrative problems involved in selecting a panel of experts, in eliciting informed judgments about the degree of technological advance on relevant projects, and in designing a survey questionnaire for measuring those judgments. Three methods of multivariate analysis are described for quantifying and analyzing group judgment data collected from a panel of experts. Those of the methods that are known in earlier literature include multidimensional scaling of individual differences, and subjective probability procedures, including the Bayesian approach. A new procedure, which was developed specifically for this application, involves the use of simultaneous equation system models in which the response (dependent) variables are categorical and unordered. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1975
Accession Number
ADA022262

Entities

People

  • Alvin J. Harman
  • S. James Press

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Bayesian Networks
  • Equations
  • Judgment
  • Literature
  • Mathematics
  • Models
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Probability
  • Questionnaires
  • Simultaneous Equations
  • Surveys

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference