Contributions to the Theory of Mass Screening.

Abstract

Consider a population (composed, for example, of people, machines, or livestock) subject to a randomly occurring defect or disease. If there exist testing procedures capable of detecting the defect before it would otherwise become know, and if such early detection provides benefit, the periodic administration of such a test procedure to the members of the population, i.e., a mass screening program, may be advisable. This thesis develops and analyzes two analytical models of a mass screening program. In both models, the defect arrival process is Poisson and the ability of the test to recognize a defect is not, in general, assumed perfect. The first model represents the evolution of the defect, once it occurs, as a semi-Markov process. Both the test reliability and the detection payoff are dependent upon the state of that process. The second model is structurally simpler, focusing on the time since incidence of a defect as the factor which determines the relability of a test administration and the value of a detection.

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA029442

Entities

People

  • John A. Voelker

Organizations

  • Northwestern University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computer Program Reliability
  • Detection
  • Livestock
  • Markov Processes
  • Personal Information Managers
  • Reliability

Readers

  • Infectious Disease/Epidemiology
  • Materials Science and Engineering.
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.