The Accuracy of Air Force Weapon System Cost Estimates as a Function of Time.
Abstract
Repeated experiences with unrealistic system acquisition cost estimates made by defense contractors and the Department of Defense have seriously undermined the willingness of Congress and the general public to fully support current and new acquisition programs. To facilitate regaining this support for defense programs, improvement in the accuracy of acquisition cost estimates is needed. In attempting to identify the factors that influence the accuracy of these cost estimates, this study is focused on the relationships between the accuracy of activity-cost estimates and three factors--the estimate's distance from the activity start date, the project start date, and the magnitude of the activity cost. Four accuracy measures were used: the magnitude and direction of the estimate error expressed as a percentage of the activity-cost, the absolute value of this error, the magnitude and direction of the estimate error expressed as a dollar value, and the absolute value of this error. The data base consisted of 282 cost estimates for eighty nine activities. A strong relationship was found between accuracy and the magnitude of activity cost. Weaker relationships were found between accuracy and the estimate's distance from both the activity start date and the project start date. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1976
- Accession Number
- ADA030240
Entities
People
- Hugh S. Mcleod Iii
- Jeffrey J. Phillips
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology