Stochastic Models of the Distribution of Dyadic Warfare in Time.

Abstract

Stochastic models are constructed to illuminate the dynamic incidence of international warfare during the 1816-1965 period. It is argued that the probabilistic structure is revealed most clearly through an analysis based on dyads of nations, thereby dissassembling such large wars as World War II. The conceptual focus is maintained on a clear delineation of heterogeneity over time and over actors and of contagion in both its addictive and infectious varieties. Departures from randomness are considered as modifications of the Poisson process. Methodological attention is directed at statistical analysis of the interarrival times between initiations of dyadic warfare. Cyclic behavior is investigated through a cosine wave-form variant of the Poisson process. A conclusion of infectious behavior is supported by a variety of analyses. An autoregressive model of order 4 is found to adequately fit the interarrival times and account for the infectious behavior. (Author)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA031120

Entities

People

  • George T. Duncan
  • Randolph M. Siverson
  • William W. Davis

Organizations

  • Carnegie Mellon University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Geographic Regions
  • Human Behavior
  • Information Science
  • International Relations
  • Mathematical Models
  • New York
  • Political Science
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Second World War
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Stochastic Processes

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Theoretical Analysis.