Areal Coverage Estimates by Stochastic Modelling.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to relate the single-point probability of a meteorological event to the probability of its occurrence along a line or in an area of given size or fraction of the area. To make the problem tractable it was limited to modelling the probability estimates of the minimum or maximum condition along a line or in an area, or of the maximized minimum in a fraction of the area. In the absence of an analytical solution a Monte Carlo technique, applied to a Gaussian variable, was used to obtain answers that are presented graphically. Two models are described, one shown to be effective with macroscale events; the other, and more interesting model, is shown to be effective with the mesoscale phenomena of quantitative precipitation in areas ranging from a few hundred square kilometers to more than 50,000 sq. km. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 06, 1976
- Accession Number
- ADA031299
Entities
People
- Irving I. Gringorten
Organizations
- Air Force Research Laboratory