On The Psychology of Experimental Surprises: Outcome Knowledge and the Journal Review Process.

Abstract

To merit publication a study must be informative; the reader must not feel that the results could have been confidently predicted prior to conducting the study. Earlier studies of the psychology of hindsight have shown that people overestimate the predictability of past events. This report examines whether they also overestimate the predictability of experimental results. Three experiments strongly suggest that reviewers may overestimate the degree to which they could have predicted the reported results of experiments. The implications of this bias for the journal review process, and some ways in which it might be alleviated, are discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA033181

Entities

People

  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Paul Slovic

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Applied Psychology
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Biomedical Research
  • Department Of Defense
  • Electronics Laboratories
  • Engineering
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Judgment
  • Military Research
  • Naval Personnel
  • Naval Training
  • Psychology
  • Scientific Research
  • Security
  • Social Psychology
  • Social Sciences
  • Students

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Psychometric Testing or Psychological Assessment.
  • Systems Analysis and Design