A Methodology for Estimating Jet Engine Costs Early in Weapon System Acquisition,

Abstract

The Department of Defense (DOD) is deeply conerned about developing accurate initial estimates for weapon system production costs. An area of particular interest is providing estimates of future production costs for jet engines. Current parametric models used by the Air Force identify engine cost as a function of output variables. Other DOD agencies consider relating input variables as well as output variables to production costs. This study was designed to find a better way to estimate engine production costs. The results of this research include the following findings: (1) current Air Force cost-estimating models are operationally ineffective; (2) raw materials-related variables are highly correlated with cost and should be considered in developing future cost-estimation models; (3) statistical validation of cost models should incorporate confidence interval testing at a specfied alpha level for each prediction; and (4) the use of confidence intervals is the correct statistical approach for developing cost estimates which may be used in decision making. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA033667

Entities

People

  • Michael A. Yanke

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Computer Programs
  • Contracts
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Jet Engines
  • Management Personnel
  • Procurement
  • Propulsion Systems
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Statistical inference.