A Model for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Weather Events,
Abstract
Meteorological satellites have made it possible to obtain information on areal coverage and joint occurrences of meteorological events not heretofore possible. However, a long record of observations is required to derive a climatology of joint occurrences. Routine, hourly, surface weather observations may be sufficiently concurrent to estimate joint occurrences among sites where such observations are taken. This paper describes a model for estimating joint probabilities of weather events. The model was applied to 13 years of hourly winter and summer precipitation observations taken at nine sites along the East Coast of the United States between LaGuardia Airport, N. Y., and Raleigh-Durham Airport, N. C. It requires a knowledge of the unconditional probability of the event, distances between the sites, and a measure of the spatial correlation. Probabilities estimated by the model agree very well with relative frequencies of observed joint occurrences of precipitation. Satellite observations are needed to derive the parameters of the model and to test it in areas where surface observations are unavailable or unsuitable. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 07, 1976
- Accession Number
- ADA034081
Entities
People
- Donald D. Grantham
- Iver A. Lund
Organizations
- Air Force Research Laboratory