Decision Making with the Aid of a Subjective Prior Distribution.

Abstract

This paper discusses a methodology to establish a subjective prior distribution via an interactive computer program on a CRT. The program asks specific carefully worded questions. The answers to these questions are checked for logical consistency and are translated into fractiles of a subjective probability distribution. The fractiles as well as other summary measures (like the mean and variance) are printed out. In order to find a conjugate prior distribution for a Bayesian treatment, the mathematical form of a possible conjugate prior needs to be ascertained. The paper illustrates how the parameters of a lognormal distribution might be obtained from the fractiles of the subjectively derived prior. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA034799

Entities

People

  • Chi-yuan Lin
  • George J. Schick

Organizations

  • University of Southern California

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Coding
  • Commerce
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Consistency
  • Distribution Functions
  • Intervals
  • Ions
  • Judgment
  • New York
  • Notation
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Random Variables
  • Schools

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Computer Science.
  • Statistical inference.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference