Step-Through Simulation: A Method for Implementing Decision Analysis.

Abstract

This report describes the initial development of the step-through variant of Monte Carlo simulation, a new procedure for implementing decision analysis or for training decision makers. Like regular Monte Carlo simulation it involves sampling possible aftermaths of an initial action, and generating a distribution of outcome values for it. However, the detailed structure and/or assessments of the decision model are elicited as called for in the execution of each trial. It therefore permits substantial economy of elicitation if there are few trials. The step-through procedure also offers economy of elicitation and calculation over a traditional extensive-tree decision-analytic model without requiring simplifications or aggregations in the model's conceptualization.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1976
Accession Number
ADA036969

Entities

People

  • Jacob W. Ulvila
  • L. Scott Randall
  • Rex W. Brown

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Computer Graphics
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Military Research
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Naval Operations
  • Navy
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Systems Engineering
  • Task Forces
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.