Bupers MPN Expenditure Estimating.

Abstract

The Bureau of Naval Personnel has responsibility for controlling expenditure of the MPN funds and, in particular, for ensuring that this expenditure does not exceed the amounts annually authorized by the Congress. Forecasting the precise level and time of disbursements is a difficult task, because claims for payment arise at a great diversity of sites and reporting delays can vary considerably. To guard against the possibility of overspending, the Bureau of Naval Personnel has refrained from planning to spend the full sum allotted it by Congress, holding some monies back so that it can deal with unexpected obligations. It is clearly desirable that these reserve assets be kept to a minimum consonant with a desired level of protection against overexpenditure. The purpose of this study is to develop the analytical tools to estimate reliably the proper margin of safety that BuPers should maintain to guard against overspending. The analysis of financial data of the BA(1) and BA(2) accounts of the past three fiscal years show that BuPers has exerted close control in keeping a proper relationship between actual expenditures and planned obligations. However, further refinements and improvements in the methods and procedures are possible.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 28, 1977
Accession Number
ADA037391

Entities

People

  • James E. Golding
  • Joseph H. Augusta
  • Judith A. Bryan
  • Mark A. Hainline
  • Ronald H. Nickel

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Mining
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Information Science
  • Margin Of Safety
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Naval Personnel
  • Probability
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Transfer Functions

Readers

  • Government Contracting/Procurement.
  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Personnel Management and Statistics in the Military and Department of Defense