Forecasts of Aircraft Activity by Altitude, World Region, and Aircraft Type.
Abstract
The level of international air traffic on a world-wide basis is analyzed for the base year of 1975 and forecast for the years of 1980, 1985, and 1990. An econometric model is used to forecast flight activity using regional economic and population data and data on fuel prices and other aircraft operating costs. Other models transform these forecasts into estimates of aircraft flight hours at various altitudes over areas of the globe. A special model was devised which probabilistically assigns flight-hour activity to specific aircraft types in future years as fleet composition changes. The evidence illustrates the prominence of U.S., European, and U.S.-European traffic in total activity. It also indicated the gradual transition to wide-body aircraft and the gradual phasing out of four-engine, narrow-body transports. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1976
- Accession Number
- ADA039016
Entities
People
- Randall J. Pozdena
Organizations
- SRI International