Operational Data Tests with a Tropical Cyclone Model.

Abstract

The coarse-grid version of Ley and Elsberry tropical cyclone prediction model was used to evaluate the effect of using operationally-analyzed rather than hand-analyzed data. A series of 41 cases from the 1975 typhoon season resulted in larger errors than the official forecasts. In most cases the track was forecast well, but the translation speed was slow. Tests with a 4th-order advection scheme did not lead to significant improvements over the 2nd-order advection. It was concluded that the most likely source of error was due to data deficiencies in the western Pacific. Wind direction estimates based on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) photographs were compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) hand-analyzed streamlines. About 65-70% of the DMSP direction estimates at the gradient and 250-mb level were within + or - 10 deg of the handanalyzed fields. The author concludes that the new data source of DMSP direction estimates should be used in operational analysis.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA039183

Entities

People

  • Russell L. Elsberry

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Advection
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Classification
  • Cyclones
  • Deficiencies
  • Grids
  • Meteorological Satellites
  • Meteorology
  • Photographs
  • Research Facilities
  • Space Systems
  • Statistics
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Weather Forecasting
  • Wind
  • Wind Direction

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology

Technology Areas

  • Space