Crisis Dynamics and Deterrence: A Reformulation of the Classic Calculus

Abstract

While the importance of the timing element is generally acknowledged as an essential part of crisis analysis, it involves a major assumption which is seldom explored and on which little work has been done to incorporate the timing element as a formal component of the model. Most often, crisis models and studies of the decision-making process are static in nature, assuming the time component to be a characteristic of the crisis situation, rather than a variable in the equation. The present research focuses on presenting a more direct application of utility theory to deterrence and introduces some additional concepts from statistical decision theory to more clearly delineate the statics of the deterrence situation.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA039975

Entities

People

  • Abraham R. Wagner
  • Lee E. Dutter

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • California
  • Computer Simulations
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Crisis Management
  • Decision Theory
  • Department Of Defense
  • Foreign Policy
  • Governments
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • National Security
  • New York
  • Probability
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Decision Theory
  • United States

Readers

  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.
  • Theoretical Analysis.