New York State's Transition to Stability: The Demographic Outlook,
Abstract
The population of New York State is in transition from steady growth to near stability. This paper distills the basic information on current population trends in the state and highlights economic and social problems that those trends are likely to create. The major features of population change in New York are: (1) an end to metropolitan growth statewide and the onset of decline in four of the state's ten Standard Metropolitan STatistical Areas, (2) a revival or intensification of growth in selected nonmetropolitan areas of the state, and (3) wide variations in the rate of population change for different age groups. These three demographic shifts will produce certain strains, some of which can be gauged with precision while others can only be guessed at. Changes in the distribution of population between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors are likely to require new fiscal and political accommodations at the local level. There will be fewer children to be educated, for example, but more elderly persons to be served. The effects of different rates of growth for different age groups (which reflect past fluctuations in fertility) can be projected ahead with some confidence. These projections give timely notice of circumstances built into the population's structure that will affect school and college enrollments and the demand for particular kinds of dwelling units suited to specific age groups. The changing distribution of the elderly population among New York State's counties is examined in detail.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA040880
Entities
People
- Peter A. Morrison
Organizations
- RAND Corporation