Implementation of Risk Assessment in the Total Risk Assessing Cost Estimate (Trace)

Abstract

The concept of the Total Risk Assessing Cost Estimate (TRACE) was articulated by the ASA (R and D) on 12 July 1974. It is a means of explicitly accommodating the unforseen and unidentifiable costs which characterize research and development projects. The TRACE is required to possess the property that it is an estimate of the 50th percentile of the project cost probability distribution. Unfortunately, early attempts to implement the TRACE met with limited success. A formalized study was undertaken to develop adequate techniques and two candidate methodologies emerged. One of the approaches, the TRACE Network Model, is extremely promising. The second technique, TRACE Risk Tabulation, can be improved upon by a modification involving computer generation of the imbedded probability distribution. There remain some problems in 'educating' users of the value of the TRACE, and the TRACE concept suffers from some inherent shortcomings. It is recommended that the new techniques for developing the TRACE be implemented, along with some ancillary actions to support the implementation and enhance the usefulness of the TRACE.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 20, 1977
Accession Number
ADA041467

Entities

People

  • Gene A. Venzke

Organizations

  • United States Army War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Business Administration
  • Computer Programming
  • Computers
  • Congress
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Light Armored Vehicles
  • Logistics Management
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Program Management
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Factors
  • Systems Management

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Systems Analysis and Design