Forecasting the Retention of Navy Pilots,

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for forecasting the size of specific officer groups (pilots) that will stay in service during specified future epochs (six months, twelve months, etc.). The statistical procedure is that of determining confidence intervals to the unknown retention probabilities, based on the observed retention rates, and applying these confidence intervals to obtain tolerance (prediction) intervals for the yet unobserved values of the group's size. The methodology developed is applied on actual Navy data of pilots' retention, according to their source code and date of completing the minimum service requirement. FORTRAN programs are given for computer installment of the procedure.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 09, 1977
Accession Number
ADA042287

Entities

People

  • S. Zacks

Organizations

  • George Washington University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Binomials
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Confidence Limits
  • Delphi Method
  • Engineering
  • Intervals
  • Logistics
  • Military Research
  • Probability
  • Procedures (Computers)
  • Random Variables
  • Schools
  • Universities

Readers

  • Aviation Science / Aeronautics.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Naval Personnel Management