Predicting Manning Levels in Post Year 2000 Ships. III. Manning Predictions Based on Growth and Complexity.
Abstract
Prior reports in this series defined four possible computer simulation models for predicting manning requirements on USN ships after the year 2000. This report selects the most promising of these alternatives and develops further detail relative to this model. However, since the model is based on several technical (relational) conjectures, as yet unproven, the major portion of the effort reported is devoted to the further investigation of the validity of these relationships and approaches: projection of manning level requirements based on the classical growth curve; decomposition of task complexity into five major constituent elements and determination of their relative importance; combination of these, together with known data, into a single analytical expression for extrapolation of manning levels decades into the future; and determination of the acceptability of this analytic expression in terms of the error based on navy data for three ship functions. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA045796
Entities
People
- Allan R. Williams
- Arthur I. Siegel
- J. Jay Wolf