A Case Study in Risk/Decision Analysis.

Abstract

The increasing emphasis being placed on risk analysis in DOD has made the subject a focal point for program managers. The individual services are required to estimate or subjectively determine the risk inherent in their programs by conducting a risk assessment. The case study developed in this report is an attempt to inject a quantification of risk based on the facts available and the use of probability and statistics. A decision analysis is then applied to assist the decision maker in definitizing his options on a dollar basis. Various trade-offs and evaluation criteria are used to transfer the degree of risk to this dollar base. Each cost schedule, and performance parameter is treated on an equal risk basis. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1973
Accession Number
ADA046651

Entities

People

  • Leslie P. Crawford

Organizations

  • Defense Systems Management College

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Business Administration
  • Case Studies
  • Counter Rocket, Artillery, And Mortor
  • Defense Systems
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Program Management
  • Rdx
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Security
  • Systems Management

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design