Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay.

Abstract

A primary concern of Navy management is the ability to meet the Navy's manpower requirements in terms of both the quantity and quality of personnel. Recruitment, promotion, retirement, and other managerial policies are all directly related to and restricted by the Military Personnel, Navy (MPN) budget. Because over 50 percent of the MPN budget is allocated for enlisted basic pay, special attention must be given to the accurate forecasting of enlisted populations. The Naval Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) Model, designed to accomplish this objective, relies solely upon historical population data and user-supplied enlisted end-strengths. Time series analysis is used to determine a general set of forecasting models that adequately explain the historical data. Other statistical procedures, including those employed in costing the enlisted force and in estimating recruit input populations, are also detailed. Validation results indicating errors of less than .1 percent for total enlisted basic pay are presented. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA046878

Entities

People

  • Mark Chipman

Organizations

  • Bureau of Naval Personnel

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Cost Overruns
  • Costs
  • Data Sets
  • Databases
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Force Structure
  • Inventory
  • Lead Time
  • Manpower
  • Military Personnel
  • Naval Personnel
  • Personnel Management
  • Standards
  • Time Series Analysis
  • White Noise

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Naval Personnel Management