A Methodology for Comparison of Attrition Forecasting Models,

Abstract

This analysis develops a methodology for comparing forecasting models and examines in detail the ability of available attrition/success models to adequately predict the service performance of nongraduate Marines. Available models will almost always select graduates over nongraduates; therefore, it is possible that these models cannot optimally select from among the remaining nongraduates -- some of whom the Marine Corps will be forced to accept. The data was disaggregated and the attrition of graduates and nongraduates was examined separately. The results of this analysis indicate that using a separate attrition/success model developed especially for nongraduates will not significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of prediction. The conclusion, therefore, is that existing models, which deal with an aggregated population, are both appropriate and sufficient. (Author)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA048004

Entities

People

  • Charles A. Millard

Organizations

  • Center for Naval Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Attrition
  • Chi Square Test
  • Classification
  • Data Analysis
  • Databases
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Errors
  • Information Science
  • Marine Corps
  • Marine Corps Operations
  • Personnel Management
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Probability
  • Recruiting
  • Recruits
  • Regression Analysis
  • Standards

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Organic Chemistry
  • Software Engineering.