Creating Mathematical Models of Judgment Processes: From Policy-Capturing to Policy-Specifying.
Abstract
Planning for a computer-based personnel job opportunities system for the Air Force led to a requirement for a procedure to generate a 'payoff' or 'value' of the assignment of each person to each possible job. This report discusses three methods of weighting different information to form a single indicator of 'payoff' or 'value', explicit weighting and two implicit weighting methods-policy-capturing and policy-specifying. The two implicit weighting methods are combined into a more comprehensive method referred to as policy-development. The policy-capturing process presents a series of decision situations to one (or more) policy makers and the policy maker assigns to each situation a number which reflects the 'value' or 'payoff'. Then a mathematical model is derived by obtaining the regression equation that best predicts the policy maker's judgments. Policy-specifying, which is the main focus in this report, does not depend on a sample of actual judgments to determine the regression weights, but attempts to translate into mathematical form a policy maker's more global statements about the general properties that the model should have. The mixing of policy-capturing and policy-specifying leads to a process called policy-development. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA048983
Entities
People
- Joe H. Ward Jr.
Organizations
- Brooks Air Force Base