An Experimental Test of a Model for Decision Strategy Selection
Abstract
Beach and Mitchell (1977) proposed a contingency model for the selection of decision strategies. The strategy that the decision maker sees as offering the greatest expected net gain is the one selected; i.e., selection is based on a cost-benefit analysis. Christensen-Szalanski and Beach (1977) formalized the strategy selection mechanism. The present paper reports on the tests of the major predictions of the formalized model. The results strongly support the model's predictions (1) of the effect that fatigue and an increase in the value of making a correct decision will have upon the decision maker's confidence in the decision and the amount of time invested in making the decision, and (2) the assumption that strategy cost is an increasing function of perceived strategy selection. In addition (3) a significant correlation was obtained between subjective certainty and obtained accuracy of the decisions, and (4) the value of making a correct decision was found to affect the complexity of the strategy selected to solve the decision. The results suggest that people use a form of cost-benefit analysis as a basis for selecting decision strategies and that their behavior is optimal in that it tends to maximize the decision maker's expected net utility. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA049148
Entities
People
- Jay J. J. Christensen-szalanski
Organizations
- University of Washington