Operational Decision Aids: The Application of Nomography and Uncertainty Analysis to Decision-Aiding Systems.
Abstract
This report describes analyses performed and conclusions obtained in applying nomography and uncertainty analyses to decision aiding systems. The models described here have been implemented for test and evaluation in the University of Pennsylvania ODA test facility. Nomography is the art or science of constructing graphs that enable a dependent variable to be determined by the use of ortholinear projections given the values of one or more independent variables. Uncertainty is any imprecision in knowledge resulting from causes such as inaccuracy, lack of validity, or bias in the inputs to a decision. The analysis focuses on the specific decision problem of air strike delay in the context of the ONRODA strike warfare scenario. The baseline approach from which study embarked is reported in Decision Analysis as an Element in an Operational Decision Aiding System (DDI Technical Report 75-13 for ONR, AD-A018 109). While developed in a specific framework, the conclusions, methodology, and models are applicable to the broad class of decision problems which requires selection of the best time to initiate a specified action. With modification, the approach can be applied to the multiple-choice decision problem.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 15, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA049545
Entities
People
- F. Glenn
- M. Strieb
- R. Wherry
- Robin I. Goldman
- S. Epstein