Sources of Judgmental Uncertainty

Abstract

Two studies examined the effects of information variables on judges' uncertainty about the accuracy of their judgments. In the first study results suggested that the degree of disorderliness of information was related to the degree of judgmental uncertainty but that control of the timing of information reception was not. The second study affirmed the effects of disorderliness and showed a strong effect of the reliability of unreliability of the information's source. Unreliable sources produced greater uncertainty. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for contingency theory concepts of environmental uncertainty verses decision theoretic concept of individual uncertainty.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA049745

Entities

People

  • Lee Roy Beach
  • Olga L. K. Crocker
  • Terence Mitchell

Organizations

  • University of Washington

Tags

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  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Applied Psychology
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Biomedical Research
  • Business Administration
  • Engineering
  • Environment
  • Geography
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Intervals
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  • Operations Research
  • Psychology
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  • Students
  • Systems Engineering
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Universities

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

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  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Regression Analysis.
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