Dynamical Numerical Prediction of Large-Scale Thermal Anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean.
Abstract
A ten-level primitive equation ocean circulation model is used to investigate the formation and evolution of large-scale thermal anomalies observed in the central North Pacific Ocean during the fall and winter of 1976. Several initial value model integrations of 4 months duration are carried out in order to help explain the observed anomaly development. Initial and verifying ocean data down to 400 m depth are obtained from the NORPAX ships of opportunity program. Anomalous atmospheric wind forcing is obtained from Namias' monthly mean sea-level pressure anomalies, while climatological heat fluxes are used. The skill with which the model simulates the observed anomaly evolution in the different experiments is estimated synoptically and measured statistically by calculating root mean square (RMS) temperature errors and S1 skill scores. Analysis indicates that anomalous atmospheric wind forcing improves the model predictions in the upper levels. For this particular winter case using climatological heating, however, knowledge of the initial anomalous temperature conditions does not improve the model results. The model skill at upper levels exceeds both persistence and climatology (forecast of zero anomaly) while at the lower levels it is comparable to persistence but not as good as climatology. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA049919
Entities
People
- Wayne Stuart Shiver
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School