A Study of Forecast Errors in a Barotropic Operational Model for Predicting Paths of Tropical Storms.
Abstract
To enable use of satellite cloud-motion vectors in the SANBAR model for prediction of tropical storm tracks, we have derived regression equations for estimating the tropospherically averaged flow from information at one, two, or three levels. Two-level results represent an improvement over climatology and a third level yields substantial further improvement. We find from a study of the 1975 season in the Atlantic Basin that reduction in initial position and track-velocity errors can produce substantial improvement in position-forecast accuracy out to 72 hours range. We recommend a new procedure for evaluating and using wind observations within the region influenced by the storm circulation. The new method has the potential for substantial reduction of present forecast error for storms within 24 hours of landfall. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1977
- Accession Number
- ADA050173
Entities
People
- Alan L. Adams
- Frederick Sanders
- Norma J. B. Gordon
- Wade D. Jensen
Organizations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology