The Effect of Modeling Depth on Reliability Prediction for Systems Subject to a Phased Mission Profile

Abstract

The term 'phased mission profile' describes a situation in which the factors that influence the longevity of a system change in the course of a sequence of distinct, successive periods of time which are the mission 'phases'. Phased mission profiles tend to be associated with more general phased missions, in which there can also be changes in the system configuration that is relevant to mission success, but many systems with a stable configuration are exposed to phased mission profiles. Predictions of the probability of mission success for a system typically result from combining predicted probabilities of mission success for its components according to logic model for the system's configuration. We investigate the effect that the depth to which the logic model is carried has on predictions, when the predictions at the component level are made using a 'standard' methodology. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA050246

Entities

People

  • J. D. Esary

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • California
  • Complex Systems
  • Environment
  • Environmental Exposure
  • Inequalities
  • Military Research
  • Mission Profiles
  • Missions
  • Notation
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Reliability
  • Sequences
  • Standards
  • Survival
  • Two Dimensional

Readers

  • Aerospace logistics and air mobility.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Phased Array Antenna Design.