Progress Report on the Cross-National Crisis Indicators Project.
Abstract
The Cross-National Crisis Indicators (CNCI) Project focuses on the crisis warning aspect of the Crisis Management Program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency's Cybernetics Technology Office. The tasks of the CNCI Project include the development of intrastate indicators of crises, the development of interstate indicators of crises, and the construction and testing of integrated crisis warning models. Other tasks include expansion of the basic state sample, the updating of the state classification scheme data set, and the illumination of the nexus between intrastate and interstate crises. Existing indicators in the various internal and external realms are discussed. The goals of developing and testing integrated crisis warning models are delineated in the context of three specific tasks: the search for linkages between interstate and intrastate crises; the development of the action-reaction model; and the utilization of several major theoretical perspectives. Among the latter are the preconditions/precipitants, diffusion/contagion, and status inconsistency models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA053190
Entities
People
- Gerald W. Hopple
- Jonathan Wilkenfeld
- Paul J. Rossa
Organizations
- University of Maryland