The Assessment of a Joint Probability Distribution on an Evolving Dynamic Uncertain Process

Abstract

An evolving dynamic uncertain process is one of several complicating factors in the analysis of decisions for which time is a critical element. A process is uncertain when its output cannot be specified deterministically; dynamic when it and its output change with the passage of time; and evolving when the output is revealed as time progresses. The decision-maker's uncertainty on the dynamic random variable that characterizes such a process must be adequately represented in any decision analysis. The direct assessment of this uncertainty is preferable to further modeling when the expert's knowledge of the variable is roughly equivalent to his knowledge of its components. This dissertation addresses the problem of performing the assessment of a joint probability distribution on a dynamic random variable in a practical manner.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA053397

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  • Dennis. M. Buede

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