CLIMATE CHANGE TO THE YEAR 2000. A SURVEY OF EXPERT OPINION
Abstract
Subjective probabilities for the occurrence of specified climatic events were elicited by a survey of 24 climatologists from seven countries. Individual quantitative responses to ten major questions were weighted according to expertise and then averaged, a method of aggregation which preserved the climatologists' collective uncertainty about future climate trends. The aggregated subjective probabilities were used to construct five possible climate scenarios for the year 2000, each having a probability of occurrence. The derived climate scenarios manifest a broad range of perceptions about possible temperature trends to the end of this century, but suggest as most likely a climate resembling the average for the past 30 years. Collectively, the respondents tended to anticipate a slight global warming rather than a cooling. More specifically, their assessments pointed toward only one chance in five that changes in average global temperatures will fall outside the range of -0.3C to +0.6C, although any temperature change was generally perceived as being amplified in the higher latitudes of both hemispheres. The respondents also gave fairly strong credence to a 20- to 22-year cycle of droght in the High Plains of the United States but did not agree on its causes.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1978
- Accession Number
- ADA054208
Entities
Organizations
- National Defense University