An Analysis of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors.

Abstract

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone position forecast errors for 10 years (1966-1975) are statistically analyzed. Variations of errors versus a number of parameters are examined. Discriminant analysis techniques are used to isolate categories where forecasts are likely to be above and below the median in west-east and north-south error components. The discriminant analysis was tested on 1976 data and the results are presented. It was confirmed that a small number of readily available parameters (such as location, maximum wind and components of motion) can, with reasonable effectiveness, classify a tropical cyclone forecast as representing a group with either markedly above or below average errors. The annual variations of forecast errors are also discussed and an attempt is made to explain those variations. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA056586

Entities

People

  • Donald S. Nicklin
  • Jerry D. Jarrell
  • Samson Brand

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Biomedical
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Birds
  • Computer Programs
  • Correlation Analysis
  • Cyclones
  • Data Science
  • Data Sets
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • Information Science
  • Meteorological Satellites
  • Meteorology
  • Probability
  • Regression Analysis
  • Research Facilities
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Tropical Cyclones

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Regression Analysis.