Technology for Director Dubious: Evaluation and Decision in Public Contexts

Abstract

This report examines the social, structural and organizational obstacles to the introduction of decision technology in public contexts, and summarizes two studies that suggest ways of overcoming these obstacles. As a means of defining the problem the report caricatures two Federal government policy-makers; Director Devious and Director Dubious. Director Devious wants to keep freedom of action. Director Dubious, though a skeptic about new technologies, recognizes the problem they address and is willing to give them a try. Two classes of technological tools are proposed. One technology, concerned with probability estimation and Bayesian inference, is illustrated by a study of the diagnostic value of x-rays. The other technology, concerned with measurement of social values, is illustrated by an application of a version of multiattribute utility measurement to selection of nuclear waste disposal sites. Both technologies are offered to Director Dubious as serious candidates for adaptation and use.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1977
Accession Number
ADA056967

Entities

People

  • Ward Edwards

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • California
  • Governments
  • Health Services
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Medical Personnel
  • Military Research
  • Nuclear Materials
  • Psychology
  • Public Policy
  • Risk Analysis
  • Social Sciences
  • Students
  • Systems Engineering
  • Training
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • X Rays

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Government and Public Administration Law.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy